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Security Analyst: U.S. Ground Invasion of Iran Would Require Military Draft

Would require a force of 1 million troops.

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U.S. military veteran and security analyst Mark Sleboda says that any potential ground invasion of Iran would require the reinstatement of the draft.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran are at fever pitch following Iran’s missile attack on a U.S. base in Iraq last night.

Sleboda says the best outcome would be for the Trump administration to understand that the Iranian attack was relatively weak and mostly a face saving exercise.

“This was a symbolic strike. It was an escalation to de-escalate. These missiles were not supposed to cause any casualties. We haven’t got a damage assessment yet but they were probably not even meant to cause significant damage,” said Sleboda.

However, if the neo-cons within the Trump administration get their way and fool the president into signing off on a ground invasion of Iran, this would require the reinstatement of the draft, something that hasn’t been in place since 1973.

“The far ranged solution that would actually mean regime change in Tehran would mean a ground invasion of Iran,” said Sleboda.

“”That would require somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million US and allied forces. That significant [invasion] would require a military draft to be instituted in the US and would take at least three to six months to prepare and everyone would see it happen. That does not seem to be on the table at the moment but anything is possible,” he concluded.

Following the drone assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the US Selective Service website crashed because so many young Americans fearful of being drafted were visiting it.

Given that some millennials have near nervous breakdowns over gender pronouns not being respected, one wonders how well they would fare as part of an occupying army.

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World at War

CIA Warned Germany About Gas Pipeline Attack Weeks Ago

Berlin received tip from US spy agency in the summer.

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Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

According to a report by German magazine Der Spiegel, the CIA warned Berlin about a potential attack on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “weeks ago.”

Citing “several people familiar with the matter,” the publication reports that a tip from the US spy agency was “received in Berlin during the summer.”

As we highlighted yesterday, Germany’s initial response to the incident was that it was likely to be a “targeted attack” carried out by either Russia or Ukraine.

German investigators concluded that attack had to be deliberate because it would have been carried out by special forces, navy divers or a submarine which were able to reach the bottom of the sea and place mines or explosives.

Although not ruling out that the attack could have been a Russian “false flag,” the only perceived motive would have been to “blame other parties for the incident,” Der Spiegel reported, while acknowledging that a “permanent interruption of gas supplies from Russia” would be in Ukraine’s interest.”

Ukraine has inevitably blamed Russia, although why Moscow would sabotage two pipelines that weren’t even transporting gas to Europe remains a mystery.

Others have suggested the U.S. is to blame, including former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, who appeared to thanks Washington for carrying out the attack in a tweet.

As Chris Menahan explains, Sikorski is married to arch-neocon Anne Applebaum and attended the Bilderberg meeting earlier this year, meaning he is very much part of the global elite.

“If the CIA bombed these civilian pipelines that’s an insane act of war that will further devastate Europe’s economy and risk a full-blown war with Russia,” he writes.

However, Poland’s Secretary of State, Stanislaw Zaryn, accused Sikorki of amplifying “Russian propaganda.”

“Authenticating the Russian lies at this particular moment jeopardizes the security of Poland. What an act of gross irresponsibility!” wrote Zaryn.

Others have pointed to Joe Biden’s promise that he would “bring an end to” Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacked Ukraine.

Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland also previously insisted, “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

Denmark became the latest country to announce that it had detected seismic blasts immediately before the leak, adding it believed “deliberate actions” by unknown perpetrators were responsible.

“It is the authorities’ clear assessment that these are deliberate actions -– not accidents,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

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Coast Guard Spots Chinese, Russian Warship Formation Off Alaska

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Zero Hedge

U.S. Coast Guard

The US military revealed Monday that earlier this month a US Coast Guard had ship embarked on a routine patrol in the Bering Sea and its crew was surprised to come across a Chinese PLA Navy guided missile cruiser.

But more rare and unexpected was that the Coast Guard soon discovered the Chinese ship wasn’t alone as it sailed off Alaska’s coast, but was accompanied by two additional Chinese military ships and four Russian naval vessels, including a destroyer. The Chinese-Russian patrol group was described as being “in single formation”. 

The Coast Guard in releasing a photo of the encounter stated, “The Coast Guard Cutter Kimball crew on a routine patrol in the Bering Sea encountered a People’s Republic of China Guided Missile Cruiser, Renhai CG 101, sailing approximately 75 nautical miles north of Kiska Island, Alaska, September 19, 2022.”

According to more details by the Coast Guard and reported in the Associated Press

The Honolulu-based Kimball, a 418-foot vessel, observed as the ships broke formation and dispersed. A C-130 Hercules provided air support for the Kimball from the Coast Guard station in Kodiak.

“While the formation has operated in accordance with international rules and norms, we will meet presence with presenceto ensure there are no disruptions to U.S. interests in the maritime environment around Alaska,” said 17th Coast Guard District commander Rear Adm. Nathan Moore.

The reference to the “presence with presence” patrol strategy is a method of dissuading such enemy foreign vessels from coming near US waters by maintaining frequent naval and coast guard patrol activity.

This latest incident follows something similar a year ago, when in September 2021 Chinese ships were spotted by Coast Guard observers 50 miles off the Aleutian Islands. The Chinese and Russian navies have also been ramping up coordinated activity in the Sea of Japan and near Japanese islands, which Tokyo has protested as an unwarranted intrusion.

This post originally appeared at Zero Hedge

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Poland Begins Handing Out Iodine Pills On Fears Of Ukraine Nuclear Plant Meltdown

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Zero Hedge

STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images

Poland has begun a program of distributing iodine tablets to emergency workers and first responders, starting with regional fire departments – who can in turn hand them out to the general population – in the event of a possible radioactive disaster at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. 

A Polish deputy minister first announced the plan on Thursday, warning of the possibility of dangerous radioactive exposure amid continued fighting in neighboring Ukraine, where technicians at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant continue to struggle to maintain safeguards.

“After the media reports about battles near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, we decided… ahead of time to take protective action to distribute iodine,” the Polish official, Blazej Pobozy, said in a national radio broadcast.

“I would like to reassure all citizens that these are routine, preemptive actions that are to protect us in the event of a situation which… I hope will not happen.” Iodine tablets can help protect against conditions associated with radioactive exposure such as thyroid cancer.

The plant has suffered frequently cut power cables, having been removed from the nation’s power grid multiple times and reverting to back-up measures, amid shelling in the area as some 500 Russian troops have occupied the complex since March.

Both sides have continued to blame the other for the deteriorating operating conditions, which earlier in the month caused plant operators to take a sixth reactor off the grid out of an abundance of caution while a power line was being restored after fire.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, “Due to Russian provocation, the Zaporizhzhya plant is one step away from a radiation disaster.”

A couple of IAEA officials are still present at the site, with the UN nuclear watchdog talking about implementing plans to establish a “nuclear safety and security protection zone” around the plant.

Various attempts have been made to model the impact of potential radiation fallout centered at Zaporizhzhia…

Below is a timeline review of events based on Ukrainian regional reporting and Yahoo News:

  • Russia captured the Chornobyl NPP in the beginning of the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. On 4 March, it captured the Zaporizhzhia NPP, creating a threat of radiation disaster. In mid-March, Russian occupying forces detonated ammunition on the territory of the ZNPP.
  • On 15 July, Energoatom reported that Russia had deployed several missile systems on the territory of the ZNPP. Russian forces were using these weapons to fire on the area around the city of Nikopol.
  • On 1 September, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission arrived at the ZNPP.
  • On 2 September, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, confirmed that two representatives of the organisation would remain at the ZNPP after the mission was over.
  • On 5 September, four out of six IAEA inspectors finished their inspection of the plant and left the ZNPP. Two IAEA workers remained at the power plant.
  • On 5 September, as a result of a fire caused by Russian shelling of the ZNPP, the last line connecting the ZNPP and the Zaporizhzhia Thermoelectric Power Plant to Ukraine’s power grid was disconnected.
This post was originally published at Zero Hedge

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